Major League Baseball opening day vs the stock market

Yesterday was Major League Baseball’s (MLB) opening day, so much of the news in the sports world was baseball related. Naturally I decided to Google some opening day trivia facts and ran across this lonely message board post.

Hi everybody, I’m new here and have this burning question that I can’t find the answer to anywhere else, so I thought I might try here. If this isn’t the right spot, please feel free to move me.

Is there a correlation between stock market performance and the Opening Day of MLB? Has anyone ever done any research into this? This is the kind of stuff I think about when I’m home in bed with the flu watching baseball all day.

Apparently it was paustinsmall’s first and only post. Not being answered in the last 3 years must have taken a toll on his poor soul, never again returning to baseballforum.com.

Fear not paustinsmall, I will take on this task (kinda) and restore your hope in humanity!

..

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Ok so apparently it is actually quite a chore to find the exact opening day historical dates. MLB.com is hard to navigate and wikipedia doesn’t list opening day dates as well. What we do know is that opening day is always either right at the end of March or the beginning of April, so we can examine the historical closing days of those periods.

I should note that in order to determine if there is a true correlation between opening day and stock market trends we would need a sufficient sample size, multiple variables, and multiple regressions.

I’m not going to do any of those. Why not? I don’t want to spend too much time trying to calculate an outcome that most of us already pretty much know. While there may be a few select companies or industries that benefit from MLB opening day, it is not enough to affect the overall market in any significant way. The market is much bigger than just baseball.

Let’s look at the Dow closing levels around the opening day periods since 2000.

 

DOW closing levels during MLB Opening Day periods

 

So to paustinsmall, is there a correlation between stock market performance and the Opening Day of MLB?

Probably not.

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